#22 Iowa St vs #17 Kansas St
We have reached the decade mark of the Matt Campbell era at Iowa State. He enters his 10th season with a 64-51 record at Iowa State, with two appearances in the Big 12 championship game. Most recently, obviously, last year, an opportunity they absolutely squandered. To be just one game away, again, from being named the programs first sole conference champions (Co-Conf Champs in 1911 and 1912 – MVIAA) Now, This isn’t a deep dive of last year (or 114 years ago), just setting the scene of the expectations in the Iowa State locker room, to be so close to the playoff (yet, honestly, really really far from actually winning that game), and those 3 straight turnovers in the third quarter of the Big 12 Championship game haunting them; can the Cyclones shake off the demons and return to the Big 12 Championship game, get over that hump and make a run in the CFP?
Eh…
It starts with Rocco Becht, the junior, returning for his third season as the starting QB for Iowa State. His first two seasons as the starter combined stats: 60.9% comp. 6,625 yards 48 Tds 17 INTs. Now with 2 years of starting experience at Iowa State, Rocco needs to bring his game to another level for this team to succeed this year.
He lost his two best weapons at WR, Jaylin Noel and Jayden (statistically, two of the best WRs to ever play at Iowa State). Those two were responsible for; 62% of completions, 68% of yards, and 68% of touchdowns that Becht threw last year. This year, the WR core is made up of lower production guys needing to step-up (for perspective; the third leading WR in receptions on the team had only 11 catches last year), some potential young talent, and a couple transfers looking to make a splash.
They return their top two RBs (neither going over the 1k mark, but combined for 1,339 yards last season), Carson Hanson and Abu Sama III, both only juniors. Throw in their top two TEs returning, Gabe Burkle and Ben Brahmer Jr, also both in the junior class, the Iowa State offense could find itself being as productive, as a whole, as last year. Taylor Mouser, OC, will just need to be creative spreading the ball around, an everybody eats mentality is how Iowa State’s offense is successful this year.
Defense lost their best defensive players including their two tackling leaders. The defensive backfield is looking to reload for another great year (last year the defense was ranked first in the entire nation with only 165.6 passing yards per game allowed).Their biggest issue is figuring out how the hell to stop the run. They were 110th nationally (15th out of 16 Big 12 teams) with 188.4 rushing yards allowed per game. Which is unfortunate considering…….
Kansas State Wildcats are looking to feast on the ground. Last year, they averaged 215.5 rushing yards per game, making them 11th in the nation in that category. Unfortunately, it will be without star RB DJ Giddens, their leading rusher the past two years. Over those two years, Giddens ran for 2,569 yards at an average of 6 yards per carry, and 17 TDs. The junior Dylan Edwards will look to take the helm. He had the second most rushes amongst the Wildcat RBs last season with 74 (Giddens had 205) and averaged 7.4 yards per carry, totaling 546 yards and ran in 5 TDs. You can see the potential extrapolating that from 74 carries to 200+. Pair that with the legs of junior QB Avery Johnson, who ran for 605 yards and 7 TDs last year, the Kansas State rushing attack will yet again be a force to reckon with.
Speaking of Avery Johnson, as a Sophomore starter last year, he threw for 2,712 yards completing 58% of them with 25 TDs and 10 INTs. Though Rocco is the better throwing QB, these two QBs mirror each other in the sense that they are both juniors now, and both have shown promise as Sophomores (and Rocco has the extra year starting his freshman year), and now they need to make the Junior year leap and become a presence on the national scene.
The WR room sees a few transfers coming in to try and help Avery Johnson excel. They do return their leading WR from 2024 in junior Jayce Brown who caught only 47 passes for 823 yards and 5 TDs. Pretty sure they have lost every other WR who made a catch last year, not like they produced much of anything anyway, but do return their TE junior Garrett Oakley who reeled in 22 catches for 236 yards and 5 TDs. If they can just go from 85th in the nation in passing yards per game to top-75, they could become a dangerous team.
Their defense will need to hold up their end of the bargain, of course. Returning team leading tacklers, junior LB Austin Romaine and senior safety VJ Payne, as well as senior LB Desmond Prunell adding experience, the defense looks to sustain their top 28 nationally ranked rushing defense. The defensive line lost the team’s sack leader last season (8.5 sacks) in Brendan Mott, and hopes someone will take on a bigger role. Their passing defense needs improvement ranking 77th last year in the nation. A crew of sophomore CBs, and transfer junior safety from West Georgia Qua Moss, will look to senior VJ Payne to lead the defensive backfield this season.
Coach Chris Klieman enters his 7th season as Wildcat’s head coach (48-28), and has delivered back-to-back 8-4 seasons, tacking on a 9th win both seasons in bowl games, since his Big 12 Championship in 2022 (his lone championship in his first 6 years). Klieman, and Kansas State, are looking to bring their program back on top of the Big 12.
The 2025 season is finally here, and we get a Big 12 conference (I would argue, it stinks to start with a conference game, especially one that has never been played in August. It hasn’t even been played as early as September since 2014) top-25 match-up that will set the stage for the Big 12. The winner gets an early leg up on the conference for a couple weeks. The winner of this game could stumble, but has some wiggle room for the conference. The loser will be fighting uphill all year in a conference where I wouldn’t be surprised seeing a 3-loss team win it.