Week 1 Thurs. Headlines – Expanded
Week 0 had just enough as a great appetizer, but it’s time to dig into the main course. Week 1 is here, and our story begins. We have a potential National Championship preview (I don’t think it will be, but we don’t know yet), some tune up games, and some sprinkles in-between. These are my main storylines I am following for the Thursday games. There are bonus headlines at the end, games that will most likely be blowouts, but it is what I am calling, The Big Mac 10 challenge. The top 3 teams from the MAC, last year, will play middle of the pack Big 10 teams. I wonder which MAC team will cover their spread. Not saying there will be an upset, but we do get to see what these MAC teams are (or aren’t) made of. More on that later, let’s get this week started…
(*spreads are at time of writing. This is not meant to be betting advice, but spreads are used to build the whole picture of a game.)
#25 Boise St (-5.5) @ USF
Boise St Focus: The Broncos look to start another run to the playoffs, seek to become 3-peat MWC Champions
USF Focus: Gifted QB Byrum Brown returns from injury as the Bulls look to make some noise this year
Spencer Danielson enters his second full year as head coach of Boise State. He took over in November of the 2023 after the firing of HC Andy Avalos. The Broncos were 5-5 at the time, and Danielson lead them to finish the out 3-0, including the MWC championship game. Then we all know last year, the phenom Ashton Jeanty, back-to-back MWC championships, and a playoff appearance, finishing 12-2. Coach Danielson looks to lead this to a 3-peat, and this isn’t the easiest first game to begin that journey.
RS-Jr QB Maddux Madsen returns to lead the team again. Jeanty stole all the headlines, but Maddux put up 3,018 passing yards completing 62.4% of his passes, and threw 25 TDs and 6 INTs. He was the second leading rusher on the team with 221 yards, and tacked on another 5 TDs. He lost his leading WR, Cam Camper, but does return the second leading WR, Latrell Caples (38 rec 473 yards 5 TDs, and their stud TE, Matt Lauter (47 rec 619 yards 7 TDs). The rest of the WR we will see who can step up.
The biggest question is at RB, obviously. But do not sleep on the combo of RS-Fr Sire Gaines and SR Malik Sherrod who transferred from Fresno State. He dealt with injury last year, but in 2023 he did run for 966 yards, averaging 5.6 yards per carry and 9 TDs. Sire Gaines is an explosive talent and even had 6 carries in the Oregon game last year. Not significant statistically, but t0 be a true Freshman and get touches against a premier team is valuable experience.The defense returns their leading tackler in safety Ty Benefield and a few other senior DBs. Lesser experienced LBs look to step-up, and the defensive line sees the return of edge rusher, with 10 sacks last season, junior Jayden Virgin-Morgan, and senior DL Braxton Fely, who had 5.5 sacks last year.
QB Byrum Brown missed most of last year due to injury, leaving HC Alex Golesh (entering third season) without him on their way to a consecutive 7-6 seasons (7th win in both seasons were bowl games). If Byrum Brown can return to his 2023 form, the Bulls could compete for the American conference championship. In 2023: 3,292 yards 64.8% completion 26 TDs 11 INTs/ 809 rushing yards and 11 rushing TDs. USF could be a very fun team to watch if Byrum can be as talented as he was then.
The supporting cast will be good, but it’s some new faces in starting roles, and Boise’s defense is not the ideal first game to get their legs under them. Charlotte transfer RB Cartevious Norton comes in having rushed for 525 yards at 4.1 yards per pop, and 7 TDs. He will split time with Sam Franklin who transfers in from Oklahoma. In 2023 he did rush for 1,378 yards averaging 6.2 yards per carry and 11 TDs. The WR core returns the team’s 2024 second leading WR in junior Keshawn Singleton with 26 catches, 408 yards, and 3 TDs. The rest is lower productions returns, or lower production transfers. The defense returns starting seniors at each level, highlighted by LB Jhalyn Shuler. S Tavin Ward and CB De’Shawn Rucker will lead the DBs throughout this season.
ECU @ NC State -14.5
ECU Focus: Can they start strong, and take the steps to competing for a conference title (5-3 conference record last year)
NC State Focus: Can they turn a disappointing 2024 into a succesful 2025
This one will be quicker, I just think this could be a good match-up of teams, both looking to take the next steps forward as a program.
ECU start their first full season with HC Blake Harrell. After a 3-4 start least year, ECU fired HC Mike Houston, and Harrell led the Pirates to a 5-1 record the rest of the year (includes bowl win). Senior QB Katin Houser returns as the starter and needs to improve if ECU wants to find success this year. He completed 60.8% of his passes for just over 2,000 yards and had a TD/INT of 18/11. They lost their 1,000 yard rusher in Rahjee Harris, but there is a lot of rumblings about the RS sophomore London Montgomery, and will share carries with the senior Marlon Gunn Jr. They bring back their leading WR, the RS senior, Anthony Smith, who had just 41 catches for 799 yards and 6 TDs. Sophomore Yannick Smith returns and expect to see the ball thrown his way more (just 25 catches last year). They return their top three tacklers on defense, and have mostly seniors starting across the defense. Looking to use that upperclassman experience to secure a better defense this year.
NC State had a lot of expectations last year being ranked 24th to start the season and finished the regular season 6-6. Part of that was losing starting QB Grayson McCall to injury and having true Freshman CJ Bailey stepping into the starting role. Now a sophomore, he looks to develop into a true weapon. He did completely almost 65% of his passes for 2,413 yards with 17 TDs and 10 INTs, adding 5 TDs on the ground. Senior TE (led the team in receiving yards – 661 yards) Justin Joly returns and honestly, I need to see what WRs can step up to make plays. They return LB Sean Brown (96 total tackles last year and 3 sacks) and another senior LB in Caden Forham. Seniors round out the defensive line, though they did lose some key pieces they need to fill.
Nebraska (-6.5) @ Cincinnati
Nebraska Focus: Can Mahomes cosplayer Dylan Raiola lead Nebraska to the top of the BIG 10?
Cinncy Focus: Bearcats look to start strong and prove they will be competing for the Big 12 title
Matt Rhule enters his third year at Nebraska after consecutive seasons with a conference record of 3-6. He did improve by two wins from his first year (5 to 7 wins), but they need to show up in conference games and prove that he can bring this team up to competing with the big dawgs. True sophomore Dylan Raiola looks to take that second year leap, and he has the talent (if he can harness it) to make Nebraska a problem for the Big 10 for the rest of his tenure there. There is heavy underclassman depth in the WR room. Returning sophomore Jacoby Barney Jr. had 55 catches last year for 447 yards, and a couple transfers looking to make a splash. Junior RB Emmett Johnson will lead a supporting RB cast of underclassman looking to split time in the backfield. Their secondary is littered with seniors, including last year’s leading tackler, senior CB DeShawn Singleton. The starters from last year are replaced by a lot of seniors, and they brought in a transfer from Missouri, RS freshman Williams Nwaneri, who was a 5-star ranked 6th nationally when he was being recruited.
HC Scott Satterfield enters his third season, and the next step is, at the very least, get this team bowl eligible. Though expectations are more in the 8-9 win window, and possibly compete for the Big 12. RS Junior QB Brendan Sorsby threw for 2,813 yards last year at a 64% completion rate. He threw 18 TDs and 7 INTs, and scored 9 TDs on the ground rushing for 447 yards. They replace their 1,000 yard rusher from last year, Corey Kiner, and RS senior Evan Pryor will make the most of his chances (2024: 56 carries 417 yards 7.5 average 6 TDs). They also brought in transfer RS senior Tawee Walker (854 rushing yards 10 TDs). Another study TE in RS senior Joe Royer (2024: 50 catches 522 yards 3 TDs) and the entire WR core are transfers, highlighted by Lindenwood transfer, standing at 6’5”, Jeff Caldwell who had 1,011 yards on just 55 catches last year. Their defense last year was nothing other than ride home about, but this year returns upperclassman, and we will see what this defense will look like this year.
Bonus Storylines for sickos
I will make these very quick. The three Big Mac 10 challenge games include the top 3 finishers in the MAC last year, and 3 middle of the road Big 10 teams looking to make a leap up the standings. Yes, all these MAC teams will likely lose, but can they cover spreads? I think at least one of these teams does. And playing these Big 10 opponents could give us an early idea of what these MAC teams look like. Then I include a fourth game here that I will be taking peaks at during the game.
Ohio @ Rutgers (-15.5)
Ohio Focus: Can they repeat as MAC champs with new HC Brian Smith?
Rutgers Focus: Start fast, finish strong, take care of business
Ohio won the MAC last year, but lost their HC Tim Albin. Brian Smith takes over with returning RS senior QB Parker Navarro (66.1% completion 2,423 yards 13 TDs 11 INTs/ 1,054 rushing yards 18 rushing TDs). Parker has the duel threat talent that can cause some problems. They lost a lot of defense though, top 4 tacklers and sacks leader all gone now. Sophomore safety DJ Walker, keep your eyes on throughout the season.
Rutgers has back-to-back 7-6 seasons and is eager to try and get more wins this year. QB Athan Kaliakmanis returns having only completed 53.9% of his passes last year, but did throw for 2,696 yards and 18 TDs to a solid only 7 INTs. They are replacing their 1,000 yard rushing RB with transfer senior CJ Campbell Jr (844 rushing yards, 466 receiving yards, 14 total TDs) and the younger talented Antwan Raymond (100 carries 457 yards 8 TDs). Second leading WR on the team returns, junior Ian Strong (43 catches 676 yards 5 TDs) and senior transfer form North Texas DT Sheffield (66 catches 822 yards 11 TDS) will help the passing game. Keep on eye on the 6’6” sophomore KJ Duff to use his size to be a factor this season. They return senior LB Dariel Djabome (105 total tackles and 3.5 sacks). They bring a lot of talented transfers on defense, but most notably for this game; transfer from Ohio Bradley Weaver gets a chance to play his old team right away. He lead Ohio last year with 8.5 sacks.
Buffalo @ Minnesota (-17.5)
UB Focus: After finishing 3rd in MAC last year, UB has eyes on conference championship
Minnesota Focus: Can PJ Fleck make Minnesota a real contender?
Former 4-star recruit, QB Ta’Quan Roberson is out to prove more than his year as back-up at Kansas State last year. RB Al-Jay Henderson expects another 1,000 yard season on the ground, and leading WR Victor Snow returns. Defense returns LB Red Murdock, who was all-conference last year (had a staggering 156 tackles… and he was second leading tackler on the team. Shaun Dolac is currently on the LA Rams), will lead this strong defense into these season, that includes DE Kobe Stewart who had 9.5 sacks last year. Do not be surprised to look up in the third quarter of this game and Minnesota is winning 13-6.
I have a lot I would like to dig into with this Minnesota team, but I will keep my sicko at bay for now. It’s PJ Fleck’s 9th season and he comes in with a RS freshman starting QB in Drake Lindsey. They return their leading rusher Darius Taylor, and I expect him to hit the 1,000 yard mark this year. They lost top two WRs, but bring in two transfers that each had 800+ yards last year and combine for 13 TDs. From Marshall is junior Aj Turner, and from Miami (OH) Javon Tracy. The defense, I think, is going to be stout this year and they will surprise at least one of their tougher conference opponents this year.
Miami (OH) @ Wisconsin (-17.5)
Miami (OH) Focus: Can QB Dequan Finn dominate the MAC again, and get the Redhawks to their third straight MAC Championship game and win 2nd conference title in 3 years.
Wisconsin: Can transfer QB Billy Edwards Jr make the passing game effective?
Miami (OH) comes in with SR QB Dequan Finn as the starter after he was the back-up at Baylor last year. However, he had three years at Toledo prior to that where he had a total of 8,679 total yards (6,984 passing, 1,195 rushing) and 88 total TDs (63 passing, 25 rushing). They are replacing their 1,000 yard rusher with a pair of senior RBs, and a hodgepodge of unproven transfer WRs. Can Dequan dominate again?
Wisconsin brings in Maryland transfer Billy Edwards Jr, whose 2,881 yards last year is more than a Wisconsin QB since Graham Mertz’s 2,200+ yards in 2022. Billy Edwards Jr. had a solid 65% completion rating and looks to finish his college career strong, with last year’s leading WR returning in Vinny Anthony II. They might have a freshman RB leading the way on the ground in Dilin Jones, but we will see how Sophomore Darrion Dupree and Junior Cade Yacamelli work into the rotation. They have seniors across the board on defense, and I will hold out to see how strong they can look.
Double Bonus Sicko
Jax State @ UCF (-20.5)
Jax State Foucs: New Coach, new pieces, new look, can they repeat as CUSA champs?
UCF Focus: Scott Frost 2.0, the return of the prodigal son.
Okay, the quickest blurb yet. I am interested in seeing what Jax State looks like after the departure of HC Rich Rodriguez, and losing duel threat QB Tyler Huff, as well as 1,600+ yard rusher RB Tre Stewart. This team will take a step back this year, but they did win the CUSA last year, and have a chance to prove they haven’t lost a step amidst all the change.
Scott Frost returns to UCF after failing miserably at Nebraska. Can they claim a natty again in his tenure? Lot of transfers in and out, and instead of a deep dive. I just want to sit back and see what this Scott Frost team looks like to start the season. I do not expect much this year, but his return to UCF is definitely noteworthy. This is the game you should just peak at the score and stay updated to see how UCF looks, this spread feels large.